Will the Ukrainian crisis make NATO relevant?
It is the failure of diplomacy. This is the failure of extended deterrence. It is the failure of collective security. It is the failure of the UN. It is the failure of international law. It is the failure of liberal hegemony. It is the failure of liberal internationalism and institutionalism. Ukraine is stripped of its sovereignty, and the world sits and watches!
In this anarchic world, each state must protect itself. No state comes to the rescue when the cost of alignment is huge or the interests are not identical. What states pursue, endorse or imply are largely the dictates of national interests.
The false promises of liberalism remain unfulfilled
He failed to cultivate a lasting peace. He failed to tame the great powers of the power struggle. It failed to compel states to observe international law in the true spirit. It failed to ensure the collective security of a “threatened” state. He dug his own grave to be buried there when he made false promises to the world after his heroic triumph at the end of the Cold War by ignoring the pervasive power politics. The myth of liberal triumphalism was debunked when states began to pursue a realistic foreign policy.
The 9/11 incident finally burst the global security bubble. National security has supplanted global security. The security of the most powerful country in the world was threatened. He stressed that the importance of national security is far more important than global security. Threats always hover over states, no matter where they come from or by whom they will come.
Nothing has diluted the importance of national interests, power politics and national security. Globalization has attempted to erase national identities and nationalism in order to make the world a global village. But he was chained and showing his place. Brexit, for example, has dealt a blow to the idea of regionalism.
Likewise, the Covid-19 pandemic has shown the primacy of statism as realism still holds that the state is the main actor in the international system. Almost all states have closed their borders to restrict the movement of people and goods. This means that states are always a relevant and primary actor in global politics. No agency has dared to challenge the primacy of states; states are many little gods in international politics.
Liberalism has failed to estimate its limits
He claimed Pyrrhic victory. He claimed to offer solutions to global problems. But he failed to do so. He succumbs to his illusions. Problems of power politics, security and national interests will never be solved by utopian ideals. Realism always warns the world that the struggle for power in an anarchic international environment is the main reason for war. Today, Ukraine is left at the mercy of liberalism.
For the realists, if Ukraine had developed a formidable defense and relied only on its own forces, it would not have been invaded by its powerful neighbor. Neither NATO nor the United States (or even the UN) has avoided the challenge to its sovereignty from Russia. To be brief, the Ukrainian crisis is nothing but all the failures listed in the prelude.
In the transatlantic region, NATO seems to be irrelevant
European countries have cultivated deep economic relations with China and Russia. China is the major trading partner of European countries while Russia generously quenches its energy thirst. European states’ trade relations with China and Russia have heightened fear of the United States. China and Russia are determined to dislodge the United States from Europe and strip it of its vast sphere of influence in the region.
America tried to rally around the democracies – the American and European democracies – against the axis of the autocrats – China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. European countries have shown a modicum of interest in getting caught up in the evolution of US-China competition, as it will seriously damage their economies. On the other hand, the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany has also strengthened the cooperation between the two countries. He alarmed America because greater Russian-German cooperation will reduce its influence in Europe. Russia is trying to oust the United States from Europe through its energy supply and cooperation.
This fear has forced NATO to become relevant again in the post-Afghanistan security order. NATO will be given its next mission; the creation of an environment of insecurity deemed necessary. Making Ukraine a member of NATO is a calculated strategy to induce Russia to invade. As a result, Europe faces insecurity from Russia and NATO will not become obsolete. The Ukrainian crisis will change Europe’s security dynamic.
The author is a strategic affairs and foreign policy analyst. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space.